With half of the 2023 NBA Finals matchup set, the Miami Heat will look to join the Denver Nuggets there following Game 4 of the 2023 Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday. Miami leads the Boston Celtics 3-0, with Boston looking to avoid its first series sweep since 2015. The Celtics are also looking to evade their first four-game losing streak since the 2020-21 season. The Heat are hoping to punch their seventh trip to the NBA Finals and their sixth in the last 13 years.

Tipoff from Kaseya Center in Miami is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook has Miami as 1-point favorites in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds. The over/under for total points is 216.5. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Heat spread: Heat -1
  • Celtics vs. Heat over/under: 216.5 points 
  • Celtics vs. Heat money line: Heat -115, Celtics -105
  • BOS: The Celtics are 26-22 against the spread in road games 
  • MIA: The Heat are 20-27-2 against the spread in home games 
  • Celtics vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics

Why the Celtics can cover

Boston has strong two-way metrics in a big-picture sense. While the Celtics have struggled in the series, they ranked in the top three of the NBA in offensive rating (117.3) and defensive rating (110.6) during the regular season. On offense, Boston has a bevy of shooters, and the Celtics landed in the top eight of the league in turnover rate (13.3%) and assists per game (26.7) during the 2022-23 season. The Celtics are also scoring 54.0 points in the paint per game against Miami, and Boston has a 116.7 offensive rating in the overall playoffs.

On defense, the Celtics have found success in protecting the rim in the postseason. Boston has allowed only 19.4 free throw attempts and 42.1 points in the paint per game, and the Celtics were elite on defense during the regular season. The Celtics finished in the top six of the NBA in defensive rebound rate, opponent field goal percentage, opponent 3-point percentage and blocked shots during the regular season. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami had the No. 2 scoring defense in the regular season, and it’s been even better in this series. The Heat are holding Boston to just 107.7 points per game, which is more than 10 points fewer than what the Celtics averaged in the regular season. Miami has put the clamps on All-NBA performer Jaylen Brown, who is shooting 37.7% and is averaging fewer PPG (16.7) than Miami’s undrafted role players in Caleb Martin (19.3 PPG) and Gabe Vincent (17.7 PPG).

Going back to the regular season, Miami has both won and covered in each of the last five games against Boston. Jimmy Butler has played in four of those and starred in all four. The six-time All-Star is averaging 25.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 3.0 steals over these contests. Additionally, Miami is undefeated (6-0) at home in the 2023 NBA playoffs, while Boston has a losing record against the spread (6-8) in its last 14 postseason games. See which team to pick here.

How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 223 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all of the value. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks and analysis at SportsLine.

So who wins Celtics vs. Heat, and which side of the spread has all of the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that is 72-38 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.  

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